8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Jan 2005

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/03/2005

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About this Release

JANUARY KEY FIGURES

		Jan 05	Dec 04 to Jan 05
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	16,391.7	-0.1
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	16,436.8	0.6

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - percentage change

JANUARY KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series decreased by 0.1% in January 2005. This follows a revised decrease of 0.2% in December 2004 and a 0.2% decrease in November 2004.
In January 2005, the trend estimate decreased in Queensland (-0.5%), Victoria (-0.2%) and Western Australia (-0.2%).
Over the three months to January 2005 the trend estimate decreased by $96m. Food retailing (-$53m), Hospitality and services (-$47m) and Other retailing (-$35m) had the largest decreases, while Household good retailing increased by $47m.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.6% in January 2005. This followed a revised decrease of 0.5% in December 2004.
All states, except Western Australia (-0.9%), had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate. Tasmania (1.9%), Queensland (1.5%), the Northern Territory (0.8%) and New South Wales (0.7%) had the largest increases in the seasonally adjusted estimate.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover decreased by 25.0% in January 2005 compared with December 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) decreased by 26.5%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) decreased by 22.8%.
Australian turnover decreased by 0.7% in January 2005 compared with January 2004 (In seasonally adjusted terms, turnover increased by 1.4% in January 2005 compared with January 2004). Chains and other large retailers increased by 4.2%, while 'smaller' retailers fell by 7.0%.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLE ROTATION

Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly updating of the frame and the estimation benchmarks and the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. These changes are made to ensure that the frame and sample remain representative of the population. In addition, the rotation of sampled businesses is done to spread the reporting load across retailers. While these changes can impact on the estimate for the first month of each quarter, the impact is usually within the normal standard errors associated with the estimates. In January 2005, there is evidence that for Western Australia the businesses rotated into the sample were generally smaller than those rotated out. This has had a negative effect on the estimate. However for other states and at the Australian level, the rotation effects were negligible.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for January 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	16,006.8	133.2
Change from preceding month ($m)	-5,349.8	103.2
% change from preceding month (%)	-25.0	0.5

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

The Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services trend series has been in decline for five months. Household good and Recreational good retailing had moderate trend growth in January 2005, Department stores had no change while all other industries were in decline.

FOOD RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for five months. Over this period, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate.

DEPARTMENT STORES

After five months of decline in the trend series, there was no change in January 2005. Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia have continued in decline, while after five months of decline, New South Wales and South Australia had weak growth and the Australian Capital Territory had no change in January 2005.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for five months with Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania also in decline during this period. After being in decline for five months, Queensland had weak growth in January 2005 while there was moderate trend growth in New South Wales.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

After a period of weak growth from February 2004 to June 2004, trend growth has been moderate over the past seven months. New South Wales has had eight months of strong growth. South Australia and Tasmania have had at least five months of moderate trend growth. The rate of trend growth has been slowing in Victoria since September 2004 with weak growth in January 2005.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There have been two months of moderate trend growth. Western Australia has had strong growth for seven months. New South Wales and South Australia have had strong growth for three months while Victoria, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have been in decline for at least five months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for five months. New South Wales and Victoria have been in decline for at least twelve months while South Australia has had strong growth for four months.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) was in decline in January 2005. Over the last five months, the rate of trend growth has been similar to that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

The trend has been in decline for the last eight months. New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have been in decline for the last seven months or longer. Victoria has been in decline for four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

After five months of the trend being in decline, there was weak trend growth in January 2005. Food retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have been in decline for at least five months. After five months of declines in the trend for Department stores there was weak growth in January 2005. Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth for eight months and three months respectively.

VICTORIA

The trend has been in decline for the last four months. All industries, except Household good retailing, have had a decline in their trend estimate over this period. The rate of trend growth in the Household good retailing industry has been slowing over this four month period with weak growth for January 2005.

QUEENSLAND

The trend has been in decline for the last five months. Food retailing, Department stores, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have been in decline for at least four months. After five months of declines in the trend for Clothing and soft good retailing, there was weak growth in January 2005. Household good retailing had no growth for January 2005, while Recreational good retailing had strong growth.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

After five months of decline in the trend estimate, there was no change in January 2005. The trend estimate declined for Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services in each of the last six months. After five months of decline in the trend for Department stores there was weak growth in January 2005. Other retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth for at least three months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend has been in decline for the last four months. Food retailing, Department stores and Hospitality and services have been in decline for at least four months. Recreational good retailing has had strong growth in each of the last seven months. The rate of growth in the trend estimate for Household good retailing has been slowing since May 2004 with weak trend growth for the last five months.

TASMANIA

There has been weak trend growth in each of the last four months. Food retailing has had four months of strong growth. Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have been in decline for five months.